Gary Mooers Maui Real Estate

Maui Visitor Arrivals Up!

2010-04-29T18:43:00.000-07:00

Maui LEADS the state with visitor arrivals, up 14.2% in March from a year ago. Expenditures were up by 12.7% for the same month, the largest increase since April 2006. Maui also had the most visitor per day spending in March, a 9.4% increase from a year ago.

This is great news for real estate owners on Maui.

Consumer Confidence is growing nationwide, which helps us here in the Maui real estate industry. The best consumer confidence reading since '08's financial meltdown occurred last month. The Consumer Confidence Index rose in April to 57.9, according to the Conference Board, a private research group based in New York. That is up from 52.3 in March.

Home sales are up nationwide, the strongest month since last July and the biggest monthly increase in 47 years! These statistics are likely to tell people "get out there and buy now, the market won't ever be better than it is now, if you like to buy low".

The International Monetary Fund see 4.2% global growth for 2010. Again, if you own real estate in Maui, and don't need to sell, take it off the market! Maui real estate is such a bargain right now, only serious buyers need apply. This is what those with cash have been waiting for. And we are seeing homes and condos sell like we haven't seen for years.

Maui just sold the most expensive single family home on Maui in the history of the world! Jennifer Anniston just paid $19.9 million for a gorgeous home in Makena, closed last week.

More national news that is encouraging, unemployment fell in 69% of the largest metro areas last month. Employers added 162,000 obs in March, the government said earlier this month, the most significant gain in three years.

Maui Real Estate is Looking Good!

2010-04-20T16:45:00.000-07:00

It just closed, the $20 million estate on the beach in Makena! Rumor has it that Jennifer Aston is the buyer, while she and Adam Sandler are filming at the Grand Wailea.

I'm sure you all know about the Barron's on-line article for the ten best places for a second home on the planet earth- Wailea is listed as #1!

Economic statistics are looking good, must be why the smart money is back to Maui real estate. For example, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators just rose in March by 1.4%, about 25% higher than economists predicted. That is on the heals of a 0.6% and 0.4% rise in February and January, respectively. Retail spending is up, businesses are boosting stockpiles, and consumer optimism is up, all good for the future of our Maui real estate market. Not necessarily good for interest rates, though. Now is the time to get that great rate!

It sure is nice to see Hawaii's unemployment rate among the lowest in the country, at just 6.9%. North Dakota is the lowest at 4.1%, and Michigan is the highest, at 14.1%. Hawaii is tied in eighth place for the lowest unemployment rate in the nation.

And what better time to come to Maui! The weather is gorgeous this time of year, tourism is down because the snowbirds have gone home, and the families are waiting for summer vacation. So you can pick up a wonderful piece of Maui real estate for a fraction of the value just a few years ago.

For example, I am liking a unit in Wailea that sold for $1,695,000 in 12/06, offered now for 1250k. Very motivated seller in the Wailea Palms, gorgeous remodel, and beautiful ocean views.

Great News for Maui Real Estate

2010-04-13T22:51:00.000-07:00

Statistics tell the whole story! Maui single family home sales are up 42% in the first quarter of this year. Average sales prices are down 16%. It looks like the buyers are saying "OK, now this makes sense!"

Frankly, the way I see it, it is downright irresponsible to be considering Maui real estate in your portfolio, and not take advantage of this market.

Maui condo sales were also up a robust 12%, but prices were down further than homes, 22%.

March saw the second consecutive monthly increase in home sales on Maui, and condo sales were at a 46-month high.

The question for everyone is not if prices will go up from here, but how quickly is the question. Six months ago, the question was if they will go up or down, and six months before that, the question was how much further will they go.

It feels good to be in a market where any answer to the big question is acceptable!

Other statistics that are encouraging: Nationally home sales are up, after a 30% average drop in prices nationwide. Economic growth is predicted at 3% for 2010, and increasing from here. The economy has been growing since the summer of '09. Maui visitor spending is on the increase also, up 25% so far this year compared to a year ago. And airline seats to Maui are up 14%, meaning lower cost to get here.

Maui Shoppers are Shopping!

2010-04-09T19:14:00.000-07:00

Sales in stores open at least a year rose 9% in March, based on an index of 31 retailers compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers. This is the best showing we have seen since March of 1999.

Maui real estate buyers, pay attention! Prices are on the rise.

Ho'olei at Wailea is seeing some good absorption, and the new listings coming on are all coming on over $2.5 million. The lowest priced units are now running $1.8 million, vs. $1.6 million last year.

Kihei Villages, on the other end of the spectrum, is seeing some great absorption. We are down to five active listings, after 26 closed sales in the past year! That is less than three months' inventory, sure to cause prices to rise. Plus there are ten units in escrow as I type this!

Welcome back to Maui, real estate buyers!!

More Good Economic News

2010-04-06T16:59:00.000-07:00

Maui is looking forward to the new jobs we should see soon, as the economic statistics show. More employment means higher demand for rental condos and real estate sales. We are already seeing inventory get gobbled up at double last year's pace here on Maui.

Nationally, the index measuring the number of people who agreed to buy previously occupied homes rose a huge 8.2% in February.

The nation's service sector is growing quickly, with the Institute for Supply Management's service index rising to 55.4 in March, from 53 in February. Anything above 50 signals expansion. Considering the service sector accounts for about 80% of our nation's economy, that is great news! Also, factories are producing more, and the economy added 162,000 jobs last month. That number is the biggest in almost three years. 123,000 of those new jobs were in the private sector, and that was also the highest such reading since May of 2007.

Here on Maui, our economy was still booming in May of 2007. To have statistics equal to those good-ole days is quite encouraging!

What really blows my mind is that the Maui News actually published the good news! Ordinarily, even with good news, the media like to put the negative spin on things. Hat's off to you, Maui News!

With all this positive news, low interest rates, strong foreign currencies in China, Canada, and Europe, we can expect a great summer for Maui real estate!

I just did a broker's price opinion in Pukalani this week for a bank. I was happy to see that we have closed more than twice as many sales in Pukalani in the past 12 months as we have current Active listings. My experience indicates that if our inventory is less than a six-months' supply, we are experiencing a strong, stable real estate market. If that inventory shrinks up any more, we can watch prices rise as demand outpaces supply.

Buyers' - don't wait until after prices rise again. Get in now, you'll be glad you did!

Wailea/Makena Real Estate Booming!

2010-04-01T10:25:00.000-07:00

With a $27.5 million Makena home in escrow, FOUR Wailea Kialoa, a Papali, FIVE Maui Meadows homes in escrow, a Wailea Pualani, four Ho'olei units in escrow, two Kai Malu homes, a Kanani Wailea in escrow (a subdivision which has resisted buyers for almost a year!), FIVE Palms condos in escrow, two Wailea Fairway Villas, two Wailea Point units, four Wailea Ekahi, three Wailea Ekolu, a Grand Champions (multiple offers on this one, priced 60k over the last sale!), and THIRTY NINE CLOSED escrows already in Wailea, Makena, and Maui Meadows, things are looking up for South Maui real estate owners and agents.

It looks like the pent-up demand is finally releasing the breaks!

Lots of statistics this week give consumers confidence above an beyond normal. Maui visitor counts are up for the second month in a row, leading the state in growth. Over 7% increase from a year ago. For visitors who chose to visit only one island, Maui island visitor count grew by 12.4%!

Nationally, consumer spending is growing, up 0.3% in February, marking the fifth straight monthly gain. And factory orders rose again in February, the 10th increase out of the past 11 months. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve holds it's Federal Funds rate at zero to 0.25%, until they start seeing a stronger recovery in employment.

Thank you God, for allowing us to survive that last one. With inventory still offering a good selection, sellers still offering fantastic discounts, foreign currencies at all-time highs, and interest rates at all time lows, we are looking forward to a good 2010, and an even better 2011!

Hawaii Economy on Rebound

2010-03-27T11:50:00.000-07:00

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) is predicting recovery this year. Hawaii economic growth was negative 1.3% in 2008, negative 0.4% in 2009, and expected to be negative 0.2% for 2010.

Hawaii visitor growth has been encouraging in recent months.

Nationally, the GDP growth was just announced yesterday to be 5.6% in the October-to-December quarter, and Hawaii's growth typically follows the national figures by about six months. So we should be seeing that growth occurring beginning this quarter or next. The national figures are the best we have seen in six years!

Unemployment in the state of Hawaii has been considerably lower than nationally. The national rate just dropped again to its lowest level since September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified. Initial jobless claims dropped by over 30,000 last month, a bigger drop than analysts' estimates. Hawaii state unemployment is predicted to peak out at 6.9%, vs. the 9.7% nationally.

Another positive sign for Maui real estate values is the increased air traffic to Kahului from the mainland. I have reported multiple airlines' increased flights to Kahului from Chicago, Alaska, Orange County, LAX, and others. Alaska airlines just landed their first new flight from Sacramento to Kahului yesterday, just further evidence that the airlines are predicting the good 'ole days of tourism coming to Maui.

Buy the real estate now at the lowest prices we have seen in almost a decade, and watch your values and income rise as the economy does. And with some of the lowest interest rates we have seen in forever, and the strongest foreign currencies we have seen in decades, 2010 bodes to be a great year for Maui real estate investors!

Economic Recovery Data Keeps Rolling In!

2010-03-22T18:16:00.000-07:00

The number of first-time claims for unemployment fell last week for the third time in a row, a sign the job market is healing.
Luxury clothing stores rose quite nicely last month. Nordstrom for example, saw sales surge 10.4% from the previous year same-store sales. Lower end stores such as Target and J.C. Penney saw smaller gains, but still, gains.
Business at high-end hotels is coming back. Revenue at luxury hotels was up 7.7% last week from a year ago.
Overall U.S. auto sales were up 13% for February, and luxury brands did even better. Revenue rose 32% for GM's Cadillac brand, nearly 14% for BMW and 17% for Honda's Acura. Lexus was up 5% while Toyota fell due to widespread recalls.

Confidence in the economy has risen most amount wealthier Americans. The S & P 500 index has surged more than 70% since its bottom last spring.

Inflation, meanwhile, has all but vanished. Consumer prices were flat in February. That absence of inflation allows the Federal Reserve to keep the Federal Funds rate at a record low of 0 to .25%.

Interestingly, Maui real estate is seeing a rebound, all across the board. For example, a listing for $27.5 million in Makena is in escrow. Four listings in Wailea Kialoa are in escrow.

And at the lower end, units like Kihei Villages, that had 30-35 listings active at any one time one year ago, is down to only six active listings, with eight in escrow! 26 of those units have closed escrow in the past 12 months, which brings us to less than three months' inventory.

Americans Regaining Wealth

2010-03-15T22:15:00.000-07:00

The Federal Reserve said Thursday that net worth rose 1.3% in the fourth quarter to $54.2 trillion. That marked the third straight quarter of gains. Net worth rose a more robust 4.5% in the second quarter of '09, and 5.5% in the third quarter.

Growth in stock portfolios delivered the biggest lift to net worth. Higher home prices helped a bit.

Just another sign. What we find in Maui real estate is that when prospective buyers feel wealthier, they come here to buy. It's just a matter of time!

Island Tourism is UP

2010-03-11T12:47:00.000-08:00

Great news for Maui real estate owners! Maui's occupancy rate jumped to 67.5% in January compared to 59.8% one year ago. There was a smaller but still encouraging jump for the state as a whole, as well- from 63.1% in 1/09 to 66.5% in 1/10.

It is not easy to ignore all these positive statistics.

Even the naysayers are saying yay. Yesterday's Maui News actually published an article giving the reasons why it appears the resort real estate market has hit bottom. Check it out at www.mauinews.com for 3/10/10, it is on page 3.

In another article today, Maui News reports that foreclosures are up from one year ago, although the rate of increase is the smallest annual increase we have seen in four years. And the foreclosure rate in February was actually down from the prior month by 2%.

Call me now for your piece of Maui real estate- while the getting is good!

Labor Statistics Improving

2010-03-07T14:35:00.001-08:00

The employment data that was released Friday had a cut of only 36,000 jobs, fewer than predicted. Many economists are saying the jobless rate may have peaked (again 9.7% last month), and predict the employment report for March will kick off a string of monthly job gains. Wall Street responded positively with a 122 point (1.2%) surge in the DJIA on Friday.

Still More Flights to Hawaii

2010-03-07T14:07:00.000-08:00

Continental said Friday that it would add a daily red-eye from Maui to Los Angeles, and a return afternoon flight from L.A. It will also begin a four-times-a-week afternoon flight from Maui to Orange County, CA, and a return flight leaving in the late afternoon.

Allegiant announced it will soon purchase two Boeing 757s to launch service to Hawaii later this year and will buy four more in late 2010 and next year. The airline now serves California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, and Las Vegas.

Retail Sales Up!

2010-03-05T15:08:00.000-08:00

A very strong report for the U.S. economy. Retail sales just experienced the largest gains since 2007, before the recession began. The 3.7% February rise surprised economists who expected closer to a 2% gain.

What a time to buy Maui real estate! Sellers are anxious to sell, and so many signs are pointing toward good times ahead!!

More Indications of a Recovery

2010-03-04T20:52:00.000-08:00

Manufacturing, construction and personal income, and spending are enjoying modest growth. Mfg output expanded in January for the seventh straight month. The manufacturing index read 56.5 for February. Anything above 50 indicates growth.

Personal spending rose more than expected, with a 0.5% increase in January..

The Institute for Supply Management said its employment measure grew for the fourth time in five months in January.

Housing construction rose 1.3% in January.

The Federal Reserve's survey of the nations 12 regions showed improvement in nine of the twelve regions. Bad weather set back the Richmond district. The Fed says that the record low interest rates are still needed to sustain the recovery. Good news for Maui real estate investors!

Economic Statistics Still Good

2010-02-27T10:45:00.000-08:00

While recent recessions in the past have been revived by consumer spending, so far the strength this time actually comes from the manufacturing sector. For example, businesses boosted spending on equipment and software in the most recent quarter by 18.2%. And foreigners snapped up U.S. goods, which propelled U.S. exports by 22.4%, the biggest increase in 13 years.

Economists are predicting continued growth in this quarter, of about 3%. That compares to a phenomenal 5.7% growth rate in the 4th quarter of '09.

Great Tourism Numbers Just Released

2010-02-27T10:24:00.000-08:00

Tourism numbers are all up! Visitor count for January is up 2.4%. Visitor spending is up 5.7%. Visitor spending per person per day is up 3.2%. Further evidence that America is feeling better this year than last. And we all know that consumer sentiment drives consumer spending. And consumer spending drives 70% of the U.S. economy.

Airlines are increasing their numbers of seats coming to the State this spring. Continental and Alaska Airlines are planning a 5.1% increase in the number of seats from California. Air seats from the eastern U.S. will be increasing by 6.3%, and international flights are forecast to rise 6.7%

This is already helping Coldwell Banker Island Properties sales. We have been putting about two new homes in escrow every day for about the past six months. This month, the numbers are approaching three new escrows per day.

What a time to buy Maui real estate! If you are a buyer, what a great time, as the sellers are still very motivated to bargain. They will soon realize, however, that the worst is behind us.

Home Prices Up Again!

2010-02-24T18:33:00.000-08:00

Now for seven successive months we have watched home prices rise across America. The Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday rose 0.3% from November to December. Only five of the 20 cities in the index showed declines from November to December. Los Angeles and Phoenix posted the largest increases. In Denver, prices rose for the 10th month in a row while San Francisco saw its eight monthly-gain. More listings are receiving multiple offers above the asking price.

People are realizing the bottom is creeping away.

When to buy Maui real estate? Looks like the time is now!

In other news, the state Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism says it continues to expect a gradual recovery in Hawaii's economy beginning this year. Total visitor days and expenditures are projected to increase this year by 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

Maui home Sales up 48% from 2009!

2010-02-20T13:07:00.000-08:00

To see the full article, cut and paste this link into your browser:

http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/201002090200/BUSINESS/2090315

In other news, today's Maui News actually had a positive article in the Opinion section! Talking about bustling tourism in both Lahaina and Wailea area.

The Fed announced yesterday that the key Federal Funds rate is expected to continue to stay at a record low, especially in light of the 0.1% DROP in the CPI last month. That is the first time the core CPI rate has dropped since 1982. Fueled by housing and auto prices.

Also in today's paper was an article entitled "Mortgage Crisis May be Slowing", with the percentage of homeowners one month late on their mortgage dropping to 3.6% from 3.8% in the previous quarter. Hawaii still rates among the lowest percentage of homeowners with a missed payment, or in foreclosure, in the nation.

Another area I like to watch as an indicator of the tourism trend is the airlines. United Airlines just announced they are adding nonstop service from Chicago to Maui. In addition, a number of daily direct flights between Maui and Southern California will begin this spring.

Maui Occupancy UP!

2010-02-17T16:22:00.000-08:00

Hooray! December occupancy in vacation rentals is up to 62.3%, vs. 57.4% 12 months earlier. That's not only good for Maui real estate owners, but also good for all the other businesses that attract tourists, such as restaurants, golf courses, tours, etc. That is good for all of us here on Maui!

In other good news, Japan's GDP is up at a 4.6% rate in the fourth quarter of '09, about 25% better than economists expected.

More good news was announced just today. A stronger-than-expected uptick in housing starts (591,000) confirms that the housing market has bottomed out after its steepest slide since the Great Depression. Still a far cry from the 2 million units per year from four years ago, it is a move in the right direction.

Other recent economic data also point to an economy bouncing along the bottom. A report today showed that industrial production, as measured by the Federal Reserve, continued to expand in January.

Jobless Rate Improves

2010-02-09T20:45:00.000-08:00

January's unemployment rate is down to 9.7% from 10%, that is good news! It was the first drop in seven months. The Labor Department survey found that 541,000 more Americans had jobs in January compared to December.
- The number of part time workers who want full-time work but cannot find it fell by nearly 1 million.
- The average workweek grew to 33.3 hours from 33.2.
- Temporary-help services added 52,000 jobs, the fourth monthly gain
- The manufacturing sector added jobs for the first time since January 2007.
- Retailers added 42,100 jobs, the most since November 2007, before the recession began.

In a separate report, productivity rose by a seasonally adjusted 6.2% in the fourth quarter. That was the third straight quarter of sharp gains.

CNN, eat your heart out! They hate good news!

Maui home sales up 48% from 2009!

2010-02-09T17:22:00.000-08:00

Maui's housing market experienced dramatic swings in sales of single-family homes and condominiums in January compared with the same month a year earlier.

There were 46 single-family home sales on the Valley Isle last month, a 48 percent rise over 31 in the same month a year before, according to the Realtors Association of Maui.

The strong gain coincided with big jumps in January sales reported earlier on O'ahu, Kaua'i and the Big Island. But for Maui the jump came off a dramatic year-ago low.
Sales in January 2009 marked a low for any month since February 1997, according to trade association data.

Also lackluster was the median sale price that was down 16 percent to $469,000 last month from $558,000 a year earlier.

The number of Maui condo sales was down 31 percent to 71 last month, from 108 a year earlier. Again, the year-ago figure was somewhat of an anomaly as the most for any month since 2007 when Hawai'i's housing market was still hot.

A new condo project in Ka'anapali called Honua Kai helped produce many of the sales in January 2009, according to Terry Tolman, chief executive of the Realtors Association of Maui, which includes sales of previously owned and new homes in its data, unlike data compiled by the Honolulu Board of Realtors that excludes new-home sales.

The median price for Maui condos was down 47 percent to $424,000 last month from $805,000 a year earlier. Again, the swing was influenced by the Honua Kai project. In Ka'anapali, there were eight condo sales last month for a median $722,500. A year earlier, there were 69 sales for a median $1.17 million.

The median is a point at which half the sales were for a higher price and half for a lower price, so a large number of new luxury condos will push the median higher.

Factory Activity Fuels Growth

2010-02-02T14:08:00.000-08:00

For the sixth straight month, The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose. January read 58.4, vs 54.9 in December. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

New orders, a sign of future growth, jumped in January to its highest level since 2004. So did current production. Order backlogs grew, along with prices companies paid.

The 7 million lost jobs will take some time to get replenished, but that time will come. In the meantime, for those out there with cash in the pocket, now is the time to consider Maui real estate!

Fourth Quarter Data Very Encouraging

2010-01-31T00:03:00.001-08:00

Check this out, the economy boomed in the fourth quarter of 2009, growing at the fastest pace in more than six years. The GDP expanded at an annual rate of 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the second straight quarter of growth.

Many analysts predict slower, but positive growth for the upcoming year. They expect a rate closer to 2.5 to 3% in the current quarter, and 2.5% for the year.

Federal Reserve to Keep Record-low Rates

2010-01-28T16:44:00.000-08:00

The Federal Reserve pledged yesterday to keep rates at the record lows (of ZERO PERCENT!) for the Federal Funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans.

The Fed did say that business spending on equipment and software seems to be rising. And it said economic activity "continues to strengthen". If these assessments prove accurate, we will soon see small increases in this rate.

Now is the time, if you qualify, to borrow money, at these record-low rates. Maui real estate buyers, if on the fence, now is the time to get off!

Home Sales UP 5% for 2009

2010-01-28T16:38:00.000-08:00

Total sales of previously occupied homes closed the year at 5.16 million units, up about 5% from 2008! That was the first a nnual sales gain since 2005. Granted, we all know prices dropped for the year. The average was 12.4% for 2009 vs. 2008. We actually did see home prices on a nationwide basis rise last summer.

In another report, inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7% to 3.3 million units. That's a 7.2 month supply at the current sales pace, close to a healthy level of about six months.

This is great news for owners and sellers of Maui real estate. For prospective Maui real estate buyers, it appears there will be no better time than now. Sellers are still anxious, and discounting dramatically. Inventory is still high enough that there is a good selection. Interest rates are at the lowest level on record. The Canadian dollar is stronger than it has been in decades.

I see the perfect storm, and I am ready to help all those who want help!