Gary's Blog

With a $27.5 million Makena home in escrow, FOUR Wailea Kialoa, a Papali, FIVE Maui Meadows homes in escrow, a Wailea Pualani, four Ho'olei units in escrow, two Kai Malu homes, a Kanani Wailea in escrow (a subdivision which has resisted buyers for almost a year!), FIVE Palms condos in escrow, two Wailea Fairway Villas, two Wailea Point units, four Wailea Ekahi, three Wailea Ekolu, a Grand Champions (multiple offers on this one, priced 60k over the last sale!), and THIRTY NINE CLOSED escrows already in Wailea, Makena, and Maui Meadows, things are looking up for South Maui real estate owners and agents.

It looks like the pent-up demand is finally releasing the breaks!

Lots of statistics this week give consumers confidence above an beyond normal. Maui visitor counts are up for the second month in a row, leading the state in growth. Over 7% increase from a year ago. For visitors who chose to visit only one island, Maui island visitor count grew by 12.4%!

Nationally, consumer spending is growing, up 0.3% in February, marking the fifth straight monthly gain. And factory orders rose again in February, the 10th increase out of the past 11 months. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve holds it's Federal Funds rate at zero to 0.25%, until they start seeing a stronger recovery in employment.

Thank you God, for allowing us to survive that last one. With inventory still offering a good selection, sellers still offering fantastic discounts, foreign currencies at all-time highs, and interest rates at all time lows, we are looking forward to a good 2010, and an even better 2011!

Labels: Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, South Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) is predicting recovery this year. Hawaii economic growth was negative 1.3% in 2008, negative 0.4% in 2009, and expected to be negative 0.2% for 2010.

Hawaii visitor growth has been encouraging in recent months.

Nationally, the GDP growth was just announced yesterday to be 5.6% in the October-to-December quarter, and Hawaii's growth typically follows the national figures by about six months. So we should be seeing that growth occurring beginning this quarter or next. The national figures are the best we have seen in six years!

Unemployment in the state of Hawaii has been considerably lower than nationally. The national rate just dropped again to its lowest level since September 2008, when the financial crisis intensified. Initial jobless claims dropped by over 30,000 last month, a bigger drop than analysts' estimates. Hawaii state unemployment is predicted to peak out at 6.9%, vs. the 9.7% nationally.

Another positive sign for Maui real estate values is the increased air traffic to Kahului from the mainland. I have reported multiple airlines' increased flights to Kahului from Chicago, Alaska, Orange County, LAX, and others. Alaska airlines just landed their first new flight from Sacramento to Kahului yesterday, just further evidence that the airlines are predicting the good 'ole days of tourism coming to Maui.

Buy the real estate now at the lowest prices we have seen in almost a decade, and watch your values and income rise as the economy does. And with some of the lowest interest rates we have seen in forever, and the strongest foreign currencies we have seen in decades, 2010 bodes to be a great year for Maui real estate investors!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Great news for Maui real estate owners! Maui's occupancy rate jumped to 67.5% in January compared to 59.8% one year ago. There was a smaller but still encouraging jump for the state as a whole, as well- from 63.1% in 1/09 to 66.5% in 1/10.

It is not easy to ignore all these positive statistics.

Even the naysayers are saying yay. Yesterday's Maui News actually published an article giving the reasons why it appears the resort real estate market has hit bottom. Check it out at www.mauinews.com for 3/10/10, it is on page 3.

In another article today, Maui News reports that foreclosures are up from one year ago, although the rate of increase is the smallest annual increase we have seen in four years. And the foreclosure rate in February was actually down from the prior month by 2%.

Call me now for your piece of Maui real estate- while the getting is good!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Check this out, the economy boomed in the fourth quarter of 2009, growing at the fastest pace in more than six years. The GDP expanded at an annual rate of 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the second straight quarter of growth.

Many analysts predict slower, but positive growth for the upcoming year. They expect a rate closer to 2.5 to 3% in the current quarter, and 2.5% for the year.

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Total sales of previously occupied homes closed the year at 5.16 million units, up about 5% from 2008! That was the first a nnual sales gain since 2005. Granted, we all know prices dropped for the year. The average was 12.4% for 2009 vs. 2008. We actually did see home prices on a nationwide basis rise last summer.

In another report, inventory of unsold homes on the market fell about 7% to 3.3 million units. That's a 7.2 month supply at the current sales pace, close to a healthy level of about six months.

This is great news for owners and sellers of Maui real estate. For prospective Maui real estate buyers, it appears there will be no better time than now. Sellers are still anxious, and discounting dramatically. Inventory is still high enough that there is a good selection. Interest rates are at the lowest level on record. The Canadian dollar is stronger than it has been in decades.

I see the perfect storm, and I am ready to help all those who want help!

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, South Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The survey of the Federal Reserve's twelve regions painted a picture of a growing economy. Ten of the Fed's 12 regions reported that activity had increased or conditions had improved. The remaining two- Philadelphia and Richmond- described economic conditions as mixed. In the Fed's previous survey one month ago, eight regions said activity had increased, or conditions improved.

This helped lift the DJIA again.

The survey also found the manufacturing activity increased or held steady in most Fed regions.

To sustain the recovery, the Fed is expected to leave the key bank lending rate at the record low near zero when it meets next on 1/26-27.

The housing market is healing, though most sales involved lower-priced homes. And in most parts of the country, home building stayed at low levels.

What does that mean? With still growing U.S. population, we should be seeing housing shortages in years to come.

One of my prospective clients quoted some wise words recently: "If you invest in the stock market, you live like a king and die like a pauper. If you invest in real estate, you live like a pauper, and die like a king!"

I resemble that remark!!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

I am spending Christmas and New Years Day in California, and am very encouraged by what I am hearing and seeing from my associates here in Orange County. As we all know, if we want to know what is to come in Maui's real estate economy, we can just look at what is happening in Orange County.

The buyers are finding it difficult to find a good deal here in Orange County. The "fixer-uppers" are getting multiple offers as soon as they come on the market. The buyers are feeling confident that the economic woes of '08-'09 are coming to an end.

Wall Street apparently feels the same way. 2009 ended the Dow Jones Industrial Average down only 1.1% for the year.

Also, Jobless benefit claims fell to the lowest level since 2008 last week, sparking hope that the job market could be on the mend.

Happy New Year, from your resident Maui Optimist!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Washington, DC – U.S. house prices rose 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis
from September to October, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly
House Price Index. The previously reported 0.0 (zero) percent change in September was
revised to a 0.4 percent decline. For the 12 months ending in October, U.S. prices fell 1.9
percent. The U.S. index is 10.8 percent below its April 2007 peak.

Shoot me an e-mail for the whole article.

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The four-week average for jobless claims was an encouraging sign that the pace of layoffs continues to decline. The four-week average is now at its lowest point since last September 2008.

Separately, a forecast of economic activity rose for the eighth straight month in November, signaling the economic rebound will continue into next year. The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.9% in November.

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Keawakapu, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Retail sales grew in November by 1.3%, the healthiest increase since August and more than double the increased economists had predicted. Companies are rebuilding inventory also, the first increase after 13 consecutive declines. Chinese exports are mounting a comeback, as the U.S. dollar weakens against most foreign currencies.

Looking forward to Chinese buyers this winter coming to buy Maui real estate!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The index of leading economic indicators rose 1% last mont after a 0.4% gain in August. Wall Street economists only expected a 0.8% gain, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

Economists expect the economy grew about 3% in the 3rd quarter, after falling for a record four quarters.

The indicators' 5.7 growth rate in the six months through September was the strongest since 1983!

We are still seeing weekness in the California and Nevada economy, but nationwide, things are looking good.

What a time to buy Maui Real Estate. Prices are down, the future is bright, but many sellers are still in a position where they must sell soon.

I have compiled a current list of over 50 below-market south maui real estate bargains!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, property in Maui, South Kihei, South Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The cruise business here rose and peaked in 2007. It was great for merchants, and our economy in general. Since then we have watched the number of cruise ships visiting the islands slowly decrease. Princess Cruises just announced that they will be adding four or five sailings for the 2010-11 season, which will account for about a 30% increase! Hopefully Princess will be the leader in increasing ships to Hawaii.

In other good news, we saw the Dow rise 370 points last week, on the heels of Chairman Ben Bernanke's declaration that the economy is on the verge of recovery.

At Coldwell Banker Island Properties, we just had our best week since 2007, 27 new escrows in one week! One year ago, we were doing 2-3 escrows per MONTH! This is exciting news for those of us who own real estate here, and for buyers with cash. The sellers are negotiating more than we have seen in 10 years, interest rates are at record lows (below 6%!), and prices are at 2003 levels.

When is the best time to buy? When we are at the bottom of the market, but the sellers don't know it yet! Could we be there today?

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, South Kihei, wailea real estate

Lots of good news today!

Federal Reserve Chairmani Ben Bernanke yesterday gave his most optimistic outlook since the financial crisis began, saying the economy is on the verge of growing again.

July home sales surge for the fourth month in a row, posting the largest monthly increase in at least ten years. Sales jumped 7.2% to an annual rate of 5.24 million units. This was the strongest month since August 2007.


Demand for entry- and mid-level houses has led to bidding wars in Southern California, as buyers are shopping for homes again, optimistic that values have been beaten down about as low as they will go and triggering the highest sales levels in more than two years. A report released Tuesday shows a sharp rise in home purchases and an increase in median prices for a third straight month -- suggesting that the two-year decline in home values may finally be over. The complete article can be viewed at:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-sales19-2009aug19,0,5419938.story

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Kihei, Lahaina, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

Good news for Hawaii travellers. Over 170 new Hawaiian Airlines positions will be filled soon, after having hired 100 new workers in recent months.

Economists say that employment growth follows the economic growth. Could this mean...

Hawaiian is about to add a new long-range Airbus, with a range of close to 7000 miles, to its fleet. That will give Hawaiian the ability to fly nonstop to all of North America as well as points in eastern Asia.

The world is getting smaller, and Hawaii is getting closer to everyone in the process!

Labels: Keawakapu, Kihei, Lahaina, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

According to the National Association of Realtors survey, existing home sales prices are up! Check out the survey from NAR or cut and paste this link into your browser:
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/08/2nd_Helped?LID=RONav0021
These results were released yesterday, 8/12/09.

Plus, the Fed announced they are leaving the Federal Funds rate unchanged at the 0% to 0.25% range. You can't get much better than free money!

Good times ahead!

Labels: m, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, vacation property in Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

The first time that the jobless rated dropped in 15 months happend in July. A net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, while the average workweek and wages went up in the newest figures. Economists are overwhelmingly in agreement that the recession is in transition to recovery.

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Kihei, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, vacation property in Maui

For the second month in a row, we've had an uptick in single-family home resales prices. Through July, $1.5 billion in real estate transactions have closed, not bad for what Maui News likes to call "the worst recession since..."

Median prices were up from June on condos and single family residences. SFR's were up a whopping 4.6% in just one month!

The positive news just keeps rolling in...

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Kihei, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui

Well folks, I know good news doesn't sell. But if you want to find it, here it is!
U.S. Manufacturing activity is expected to actually grow next month for the first time since January 2008.
Construction spending rose for the second time in three months in June, as residential building increased. The 0.3% increase is a far cry from the expected 0.5% drop!
The S&P index is back to 4-digit territory, closing over 1000 yesterday for the first time since 11/4/08. That puts the index up over 48% since March.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the fourth day in a row today.
Real estate prices are holding steady, inventory is decreasing nationwide, and public optimism is growing.

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Kihei, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui

Sales of previously occupied homes rose for the third month in a row in June, the National Association of Realtors reported. That hasn't happened since early 2004, during the boom. "The turnaround in the housing market appears finally to be here and indeed may be gaining some speed," wrote Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc.

Stocks jumped on the news, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising above 9,000 for the first time since early January.

Home sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May. Sales were up in all four regions of the country. It was the highest level of sales since last October and beat economists' expectations. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 4.84 million units, according to Thomson Reuters.

In another encouraging sign, the share of foreclosures on the market is shrinking. About one out of three homes sold in June wasforeclosure-related, down from nearly half earlier this year.And the glut of homes up for sale dwindled to 3.8 million. That's a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace and another important sign of a recovery. A bit better than the 24-month supply we were seeing not long ago!

One last exciting statistic: prices have risen for three straight months in about half of the 55 major metropolitan areas tracked by the Associated Press-Re/Max Housing Report, also released Thursday.

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Makena, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

Napoleon Hill in his book "Think and Grow Rich" says one of the keys to success in life is a PMA- a Positive Mental Attitude.

I realize with all the bad press out there, it is difficult to maintain a positive mental attitude. Well, my broke brother-in-law will tell me, "I'm POSITIVE that the end of the world is near!" I don't think that is what Napoleon had in mind.

I scour the media for that positive news. I don't believe in watching Constant Negative News CNN. There are sources out there with the good stuff, although those sources are few, and they are careful not to have a bent in that direction.

Here is some of that Positive News I found over the past couple of days:

1. Hawaii foreclosure rate fell in June by 13.5% from May! 706 properties in June went in foreclosure vs. 816 in May.

2. The jobless rate in Hawaii for June was 7.4%, unchanged from May.

3. Stocks ended the week with an enormous gain, about 7% for the week!

4. New Home construction across the U.S. rose in June to the highest level in SEVEN MONTHS! Up 3.6% from May! This was the second straight monthly increase.

5. Bank of America joined other major banks in reporting better-than-expected second quarter earnings on Friday.

6. Friday I saw Paul Brewbaker, chief economist for Bank of Hawaii. Paul said that the bottom of Oahu SFR sales happened in January, and inventory has been shrinking ever since. He pointed out that increased sales and decreased inventory always precede increases in prices. He also pointed out: "Wouldn't you be an idiot to miss the $8000 tax credit from the Federal Government, these historically low interest rates, combined with these phenomenal prices and still crazily negotiable sellers??!!"

We may never see an opportunity like this again in our lifetimes.

All in all, folks, the end IS near. The end of all the BAD news, that is! Hallelujah!

Labels: Keawakapu, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

An associate was recently showing her prospective buyer properties here in Wailea. The prospect owns a newspaper in the Midwest. The Realtor suggested to her client that he start a newspaper her on Maui called "Maui's Good News", since we are so much lacking any good news in our existing publications. Her client said "Good news doesn't sell newspapers. It would never fly!"

Do you wonder why the Maui News has such a hard time talking about the good news?

Why not talk about the fact that real estate values went up year after year from the mid 90's through 2007, before we had some correction. No, the newspapers must have huge headlines about how we are in a depression!

How about the fact that since the early 90's through 2007, Maui tourism increased every year, except for a short downturn after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack. No, it is more important that we know that last year saw 12% decline.

How about the fact that the median sale price for a residential home on Maui ROSE from $487,500 in May, to $499,053 in June '09. No, instead, the news is that the number of residential homes sales declined in the first six months of '09, compared to the same period the year before.

Ever heard that numbers don't lie? Well, that's a lie! Numbers can say whatever you want them to say, if you look hard enough. The Maui media looks long and hard for the negative angle whenever possible.

How about that the Department of Labor and Industrial Relations Director just noted that the construction industry actually showed a modest move to positive territory, with 100 new jobs across the state in June? No, let's talk about UNemployment, not employment! Hawaii's unemployment rate is still 2 percentage points lower than the national average. But let's not mention that, that is the GOOD side of the news.

And GOOD news doesn't sell newspapers!

Well folks, I choose to believe that we are in GOOD times. And I also choose to believe that what we expect is what we get. As a result, and for the grace of God, I am having a great year!

I see that I am not the only one with a positive attitude. According to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, debt-related stress was 12 percent lower this year than in 2008. "People now have some optimism that the worst is behind them", according to Paul J. Lavrakas, a research psychologist and AP consultant who analyzed the results of the survey.

So when someone in your family wants to turn on Constant Negative News - CNN - turn it off!

Labels: beach front real estate, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

A recent nationwide poll shows about half of potential homebuyers are skittish about making the move, their number one concern is job stability.

Realtor.com released the survey on Thursday, showing 53% of the people who would be buying a home in the near future, are not quite ready yet.

This is quite an optimistic report for those of us who are active in the market, for two reasons:
1. If we are still alive (!), we can see the pent-up demand is building, and it is just a matter of time before all "heck breaks loose"
2. Because the number of sales are down, there is an incredible number of bargains to be had out there right now. The inventory provides excellent choices, unlike the '05 rally, where buyers took whatever came up, just to get into the screaming market.

Among those who are planning to buy in the near future, they don't expect prices to drop further, and they want to take advantage of the government incentives while they are here. These incentives are over effective 12/1/09.

If you would like to see the whole article, just shoot me an e-mail titled "skittish buyers", and I'll shoot it right back to you.

Labels: Kihei, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui realtor, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

Check out my hot picks on the home page. The newly constructed home at 111 Ponana Street is gorgeous with incredibly beautiful ocean and Haleakala views. We just reduced the price by $200,ooo! The seller is now very realistic at $1,295,000. Just one block north of Wailea, and walking distance to Keawakapu Beach, one of the best beaches in the world, you can't beat this location. If you shop in Wailea or Makena for a comparable home and view, you will have to pay upwards of double this price. Don't miss this unique opportunity. You may never see a price like this for a property of this quality again!

Labels: Keawakapu, Makena, Maui Meadows, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea