Gary's Blog

Maui LEADS the state with visitor arrivals, up 14.2% in March from a year ago. Expenditures were up by 12.7% for the same month, the largest increase since April 2006. Maui also had the most visitor per day spending in March, a 9.4% increase from a year ago.

This is great news for real estate owners on Maui.

Consumer Confidence is growing nationwide, which helps us here in the Maui real estate industry. The best consumer confidence reading since '08's financial meltdown occurred last month. The Consumer Confidence Index rose in April to 57.9, according to the Conference Board, a private research group based in New York. That is up from 52.3 in March.

Home sales are up nationwide, the strongest month since last July and the biggest monthly increase in 47 years! These statistics are likely to tell people "get out there and buy now, the market won't ever be better than it is now, if you like to buy low".

The International Monetary Fund see 4.2% global growth for 2010. Again, if you own real estate in Maui, and don't need to sell, take it off the market! Maui real estate is such a bargain right now, only serious buyers need apply. This is what those with cash have been waiting for. And we are seeing homes and condos sell like we haven't seen for years.

Maui just sold the most expensive single family home on Maui in the history of the world! Jennifer Anniston just paid $19.9 million for a gorgeous home in Makena, closed last week.

More national news that is encouraging, unemployment fell in 69% of the largest metro areas last month. Employers added 162,000 obs in March, the government said earlier this month, the most significant gain in three years.

Labels: Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Now for seven successive months we have watched home prices rise across America. The Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday rose 0.3% from November to December. Only five of the 20 cities in the index showed declines from November to December. Los Angeles and Phoenix posted the largest increases. In Denver, prices rose for the 10th month in a row while San Francisco saw its eight monthly-gain. More listings are receiving multiple offers above the asking price.

People are realizing the bottom is creeping away.

When to buy Maui real estate? Looks like the time is now!

In other news, the state Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism says it continues to expect a gradual recovery in Hawaii's economy beginning this year. Total visitor days and expenditures are projected to increase this year by 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.

Labels: Makena Real Estate, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Check this out, the economy boomed in the fourth quarter of 2009, growing at the fastest pace in more than six years. The GDP expanded at an annual rate of 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the second straight quarter of growth.

Many analysts predict slower, but positive growth for the upcoming year. They expect a rate closer to 2.5 to 3% in the current quarter, and 2.5% for the year.

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, South Kihei, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The U.S. Conference Board announced Thursday that December's Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 1.1%, over 50% higher than economists projected. This is the latest suggestion that growth could pick up this spring.

China declared it is over the global crisis and signaled a shift in focus to controlling inflation. Economic growth accelerated to 10.7% in the final quarter of 2009, driving the full-year expansion to 8.7%. The strong numbers keep China on a course to replace Japan sometime later this year as the world's second-largest economy after the U.S.

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Keawakapu, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

That is the title of the top of the business section of today's Maui News. The article explains how the Asian economies are near pre-crisis growth. Great news for the U.S., as we export to those booming economies.

We all know everything moves in cycles, and thanks to God that you and I have survived this one!

Ok Maui, I am ready for a great 2010 in real estate!

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

For the 19th year in a row - ever since the resort opened- The Four Seasons at Wailea has won the AAA Five Diamond rating, including 2010. Only one restaurant, La Mer at the Halekulani, has a longer string of the coveted and hard-to-attain ratings - 20. Only one other resort on Maui won the award - the Ritz-Carlton, Kapalua, for the 14th time.

We are proud to represent some of the finest real estate in the world here in Wailea, with the top-notch resorts right there for our enjoyment just a few minutes from home!

I'm sure you can understand why people often ask me, after I come home from a vacation: "Where does a person who lives and works in Wailea, HI go for a vacation?!"

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Published in today's edition of Science, a four-year study shows that Hawaii is the second happiest state in America, behind Louisiana. Least happy - New York. This survey is based on studies comparing things like climate, crime rates, air quality, and schools.

And where better than Maui in Hawaii?!

Labels: beach front real estate, Makena, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Existing Housing Sales Way Up! November saw existing single-family homes and condos rise sharply compared with November 2008. The Honolulu Board of Realtors reported the 46.5% increase in sfr sales, and a 102.5% explosion in condos. Median sales prices remained flat. Economist Paul Brewbaker projects sometime between 2012 and 2014 the local housing market will meet the last price peak. Maui real estate buyers- now is the time!

The most recent assessment by the Federal Reserve marked its most upbeat view since the recession began two years ago. Retail sales and factory orders and production are both up. Still, the Fed is expected to keep the key lending rate down to near zero through the en of the year and well into next year.

The United Nations forecast that the world economy will bounce back in 2010, with a global growth rate of 2.4%.

Layoffs in November were almost non-existent! Only 11,000 job losses last month, compared to 111,000 in October, and over 500,000 per month at the peak of the recession. Unemployment rate nationwide went down also, to 10%.

And to further help Maui's economy, check this out! Continental Airlines just announce four flights direct to and from Orange County, starting March 7. That is in addition to its daily flights to and from LAX.

Maui real estate is the place to be this winter. Don't expect the same values in six months!

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Mortgage rates hit a record low this past week at 4.78% for a conventional 30-year mortgage. This is the lowest since records were first being tracked in 1971. Last year at this time, rates averaged 5.97%.

This should do well for the nation's real estate sales, which will do well for Maui real estate sales. Especially the low-end, with the tax credit incentives and low rates, buyers find it hard to pass up this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity!

This is my third real estate cycle in my career, and my experience says that typically we see the turnaround start at the low-end of the price spectrum, and work its way up.

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

This is the best we have seen in a decade! Bidding wars for houses in some cities have pushed home sales up nearly 36% from their low-point in January. The National Association of Realtors said resales rose 10.1% in October, from September's volume. It was far better than economists expected, according to Thomson Reuters.

It is well known that Maui real estate follows the rest of the country, especially the California and western U.S. markets. Good times ahead!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The 2011 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will be hosted here in Hawaii where over 10,000 people will attend. This is the first time the APEC summit has been held in the United States (!) since 1993, when it was held at Blake Island, Washington.

This should bring lots of publicity and awareness to our beautiful state, right about the time our economy is booming again!

The Summit will be held at the Hawaii Convention Center in November 2011. It features leaders of 21 participating countries, senior government officials, business leaders, international economists, Asia-Pacific experts and worldwide media.

There hasn't been a high-level international gathering in the State of Hawaii since 2001, when the Asian Development Bank met here. Let's hope for a similar economic run that we saw after that last event!!

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, maui real estate, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

3rd drop in foreclosures hints at recovery; state-by-state chart
By Paul Wiseman, USA TODAY

Foreclosures fell for the third-consecutive month in October, another sign the worst of the housing crisis may be past.
RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif., real estate firm, reports Thursday that foreclosure filings totaled 332,292 last month, down 3% from September but up 19% from a year earlier. The figure means that one of every 385 homes received a foreclosure notice in October.
"It looks like it's leveling out," says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, N.J. "We're not seeing further deterioration in the housing market."
RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio said that the third-straight monthly drop was unprecedented and perhaps a sign "that the foreclosure tide may be turning" but warned that "the fundamental forces driving foreclosure activity in this housing downturn – high-risk mortgages, negative equity and unemployment – continue to loom over any nascent recovery."
Four states – California, Florida, Illinois and Michigan – accounted for 52% of last month's foreclosures.
Seven of the 10 U.S. metropolitan areas with the worst foreclosure rates were in California: Vallejo-Fairfield; Modesto; San Bernardino ; Bakersfield ; Merced; Stockton; and Sacramento.
Nevada continued to have the nation's worst foreclosure rate: One in 80 Nevada homes got foreclosure notices in October. In Las Vegas, the figure was even worse: one in 68.
But foreclosures were down 4% in Nevada from a year earlier – the first year-over-year drop in the state since RealtyTrac started monitoring the figure in January 2006. RealtyTrac said a state foreclosure mediation program "may be slowing the inflow of distressed properties into the foreclosure pipeline."
Foreclosures shot up 56% in Illinois last month from September.
RECOVERY WATCH:Tracking the economy; see VIDEO
"Despite all the efforts and resources directed at helping homeowners avoid foreclosure, we continue to see foreclosure activity levels that are substantially higher than a year ago in most states," Saccacio said.
Baumohl says vulnerable homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages are benefiting from low interest rates that keep a lid on monthly payments. But he's worried that rates will rise – and hurt homeowners struggling to make their payments – as the economy improves and businesses start competing for credit with a deficit-ridden federal government.

If you would like to see the chart, state by state stats, shoot me an e-mail.

Labels: beach front real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Maui County hotels were two-thirds occuipied in August (66.2%), an improvedment from the all-time lows of 55% in May!

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Well, the Maui News would like you to think this is bad news. GDP growth for the 4th quarter is project to be around 2.5% in the U.S. Why is that bad news? I'll take 2.5% growth from here to forever, thank you very much. I'm sure Maui would rather see long-term sustainable growth, rather than the fits and starts we have seen over the past decade. These estimates, by the way, are according to analysts at IHS Global Insight, Moody's Economy.com and Wells Fargo.

In other positive economic news, the Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities rose 1.2% from June to July. Though home prices are still 13.3% below July a year ago, the annual declines have slowed in all 20 cities for the sixth straight month.

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The Federal Reserve has signaled confidence in a recovery yesterday, when it decided to stretch out the pace of a program intnded to lower mortgage rates and prop up the housing market. Rather than buying $1.45 trillion in mortgage backed securityies and debt by the end of this year, they pushed that deadline back to the end of March. That's the second time since August that the Fed has opted to slow emergency programs designed to encourage spending and boost the economy.

On a personal note, my wife, Debbie, is an interior designer. She went into Pottery Barn yesterday, and they told her that nationwide, Pottery Barn just had its best month (last month) in the past two years! It looks like consumers are feeling more confident as well.

At Coldwell Banker Island Properties, as of the 15th of this month, our company has put 27 properties in escrow. That's about two new escrows per day, the same pace we had in August. September is typically a very slow month here, but it doesn't seem to have slowed down.

Also, another agent just told me yesterday she has a $10 million cash beachfront buyer coming into town, and when she searched for properties to show him, six beachfront properties that she had hoped to show were either in escrow or closed escrow.

On the low-end, Kihei Villages is showing some real strength. There are only 14 Active listings in the complex of 532 units. Typically, if less than 5% of a project is available for sale, that indicates strength in values. There are six units in escrow in the complex right now, and in the past six months, 13 unit sales have closed in the complex. That means we have less than six months' inventory, another strong indicator for future values.

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Kihei, Lahaina, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

The Index of Leading Indicators is up for the fifth month in a row. This is the most recent sign that the recession has ended. The report points to an economy on solid ground early next year, as this indicator is designed to project economic activity in the next three to six months. The Index was up 0.6% in August, following a 0.9% increase in July!

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, maui real estate, ocean front real estate, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

For the second month in a row, the output of the U.S. factories, mines and utilities posted widespread gains. Up 0.8% in August, even without autos and auto parts, the index was up 0.4%. And the future looks bright in this area too, because companies cut their stockpiles by a record amount in the second quarter of this year. Time for catchup.

As they say, what goes up... The reverse is also true, as we all know, in the economy.

It looks like manufacturers are leading the country out of recession.

Meanwhile inflation is very low; the "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.1% in August, and only 1.4% for the past year. This is the smallest such increase in more than five years.

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, vacation property in Maui, wailea real estate

Up 9.6% in July, new home sales are rising in all parts of the U.S. and Hawaii, including Maui. This is the fourth month in a row that new home sales have risen. Sales haven't risen so dramatically since February 2005. Maui real estate buyers should not hesitate, Maui sellers are sure to start realizing the bottom has been realized, and it will only get better from here.

Economists are almost unanimous in their projects that we can stop worrying about the housing market, and start paying closer attention to other issues, such as when credit will start flowing more freely.

The Dow Jones Industrial average just had it's seventh record high for the year in a row yesterday.

Durable goods orders also surged last month, home, car and equipment sales soared by the largest amount in years in July.

Economists are predicting that the economy in the July-to-September quarter is poised to grow strongly.

Today the Labor Department will release it's jobless claims report. That report will likely determine if we see the Dow reach it's eight high for the year in a row!

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, wailea real estate

Consumer confidence index rose to 73.5 in August, from 63.4 in July. That's a 16% increase in just one month!

With home prices at 2003 levels, what a great time to buy. Such as Wailea Elua #2110. Gorgeous ocean views, for $1,590,000. Just two years ago, the identical unit next door sold for $2.1 million!

Labels: beach front real estate, Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, wailea real estate

The cruise business here rose and peaked in 2007. It was great for merchants, and our economy in general. Since then we have watched the number of cruise ships visiting the islands slowly decrease. Princess Cruises just announced that they will be adding four or five sailings for the 2010-11 season, which will account for about a 30% increase! Hopefully Princess will be the leader in increasing ships to Hawaii.

In other good news, we saw the Dow rise 370 points last week, on the heels of Chairman Ben Bernanke's declaration that the economy is on the verge of recovery.

At Coldwell Banker Island Properties, we just had our best week since 2007, 27 new escrows in one week! One year ago, we were doing 2-3 escrows per MONTH! This is exciting news for those of us who own real estate here, and for buyers with cash. The sellers are negotiating more than we have seen in 10 years, interest rates are at record lows (below 6%!), and prices are at 2003 levels.

When is the best time to buy? When we are at the bottom of the market, but the sellers don't know it yet! Could we be there today?

Labels: Hawaii real estate, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, South Kihei, wailea real estate

Good news for Hawaii travellers. Over 170 new Hawaiian Airlines positions will be filled soon, after having hired 100 new workers in recent months.

Economists say that employment growth follows the economic growth. Could this mean...

Hawaiian is about to add a new long-range Airbus, with a range of close to 7000 miles, to its fleet. That will give Hawaiian the ability to fly nonstop to all of North America as well as points in eastern Asia.

The world is getting smaller, and Hawaii is getting closer to everyone in the process!

Labels: Keawakapu, Kihei, Lahaina, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, property in Maui, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

According to the National Association of Realtors survey, existing home sales prices are up! Check out the survey from NAR or cut and paste this link into your browser:
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/08/2nd_Helped?LID=RONav0021
These results were released yesterday, 8/12/09.

Plus, the Fed announced they are leaving the Federal Funds rate unchanged at the 0% to 0.25% range. You can't get much better than free money!

Good times ahead!

Labels: m, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, vacation property in Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

The first time that the jobless rated dropped in 15 months happend in July. A net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, while the average workweek and wages went up in the newest figures. Economists are overwhelmingly in agreement that the recession is in transition to recovery.

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Kihei, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, vacation property in Maui

For the second month in a row, we've had an uptick in single-family home resales prices. Through July, $1.5 billion in real estate transactions have closed, not bad for what Maui News likes to call "the worst recession since..."

Median prices were up from June on condos and single family residences. SFR's were up a whopping 4.6% in just one month!

The positive news just keeps rolling in...

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Kihei, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui

Well folks, I know good news doesn't sell. But if you want to find it, here it is!
U.S. Manufacturing activity is expected to actually grow next month for the first time since January 2008.
Construction spending rose for the second time in three months in June, as residential building increased. The 0.3% increase is a far cry from the expected 0.5% drop!
The S&P index is back to 4-digit territory, closing over 1000 yesterday for the first time since 11/4/08. That puts the index up over 48% since March.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for the fourth day in a row today.
Real estate prices are holding steady, inventory is decreasing nationwide, and public optimism is growing.

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Kihei, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui

Sales of previously occupied homes rose for the third month in a row in June, the National Association of Realtors reported. That hasn't happened since early 2004, during the boom. "The turnaround in the housing market appears finally to be here and indeed may be gaining some speed," wrote Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc.

Stocks jumped on the news, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising above 9,000 for the first time since early January.

Home sales rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million last month, from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May. Sales were up in all four regions of the country. It was the highest level of sales since last October and beat economists' expectations. Sales had been expected to rise to an annual pace of 4.84 million units, according to Thomson Reuters.

In another encouraging sign, the share of foreclosures on the market is shrinking. About one out of three homes sold in June wasforeclosure-related, down from nearly half earlier this year.And the glut of homes up for sale dwindled to 3.8 million. That's a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace and another important sign of a recovery. A bit better than the 24-month supply we were seeing not long ago!

One last exciting statistic: prices have risen for three straight months in about half of the 55 major metropolitan areas tracked by the Associated Press-Re/Max Housing Report, also released Thursday.

Labels: beach front real estate, Keawakapu, Makena, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

An associate was recently showing her prospective buyer properties here in Wailea. The prospect owns a newspaper in the Midwest. The Realtor suggested to her client that he start a newspaper her on Maui called "Maui's Good News", since we are so much lacking any good news in our existing publications. Her client said "Good news doesn't sell newspapers. It would never fly!"

Do you wonder why the Maui News has such a hard time talking about the good news?

Why not talk about the fact that real estate values went up year after year from the mid 90's through 2007, before we had some correction. No, the newspapers must have huge headlines about how we are in a depression!

How about the fact that since the early 90's through 2007, Maui tourism increased every year, except for a short downturn after the 9/11/01 terrorist attack. No, it is more important that we know that last year saw 12% decline.

How about the fact that the median sale price for a residential home on Maui ROSE from $487,500 in May, to $499,053 in June '09. No, instead, the news is that the number of residential homes sales declined in the first six months of '09, compared to the same period the year before.

Ever heard that numbers don't lie? Well, that's a lie! Numbers can say whatever you want them to say, if you look hard enough. The Maui media looks long and hard for the negative angle whenever possible.

How about that the Department of Labor and Industrial Relations Director just noted that the construction industry actually showed a modest move to positive territory, with 100 new jobs across the state in June? No, let's talk about UNemployment, not employment! Hawaii's unemployment rate is still 2 percentage points lower than the national average. But let's not mention that, that is the GOOD side of the news.

And GOOD news doesn't sell newspapers!

Well folks, I choose to believe that we are in GOOD times. And I also choose to believe that what we expect is what we get. As a result, and for the grace of God, I am having a great year!

I see that I am not the only one with a positive attitude. According to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, debt-related stress was 12 percent lower this year than in 2008. "People now have some optimism that the worst is behind them", according to Paul J. Lavrakas, a research psychologist and AP consultant who analyzed the results of the survey.

So when someone in your family wants to turn on Constant Negative News - CNN - turn it off!

Labels: beach front real estate, Makena, Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, maui realtor, ocean front real estate, South Kihei, South Maui, Wailea, wailea real estate

It was a great month for Coldwell Banker Island Properties! Last month, June '09, our four offices put 56 homes, condos, and land in escrow on Maui. Six to eight months ago, we were putting 3-4 units in escrow per month. One year ago, June '08, our company put 30 units in escrow. So activity is double this year over last! It looks like buyers have finally said "How low can it go???"

Economics in the news are a little hard to decipher. Bankruptcies are up 65% in the State of Hawaii for the first six months of '09 vs. the same period in '08. But unemployment figures are looking optimistic. And today's increase in the manufacturing index is a positive indicator.

Longer-term positive statistics come from the lack of construction spending. Nonresidential building is strong, but a decline in housing construction bodes well for long-term values. Demand may be down short-term, but we all know the pent-up demand eventually has to be met. And with little or no new construction taking place on our beautiful island, which direction do you think prices have to go when the market breaks loose?

Labels: Makena Real Estate, Maui Meadows, maui real estate, ocean front real estate, South Maui, wailea real estate